Wednesday, July 8, 2020

NAHL Day 29/30 - Three pulling away at the top


Mancunium Raiders goalie Heath Lindsay in net against the Captains, image credit to Mile High Hockey

In this two-game round-up, Isca Town loses, but stays well clear of second, and DC and Pons Aelius open up a big lead over fourth place.

NAHL Day 29

Portus Abonae Privateers 3, Newfield Rangers 2

Sept-Iles Whalers 4, DC Oilers 0

Eboracum Sharpshooters 1, Isca Town Captains 2

Mancunium Raiders 1, Vinovium Lumberjacks 0

Aquae Sulis Bears 2, Londinium Royals 1

Pons Aelius Steelers 1, Labrador Caribou 1 (0-1 SO)

NAHL Day 30

Newfield Rangers 0, Labrador Caribou 1

Londinium Royals 0, Pons Aelius Steelers 1

Vinovium Lumberjacks 4, Aquae Sulis Bears 2

Isca Town Captains 0, Mancunium Raiders 1

DC Oilers 4, Eboracum Sharpshooters 4 (3-2 SO)

Portus Abonae Privateers 4, Sept-Iles Whalers 3

The big news of this update is that three teams at the top of the league have started to pull away from the others. Isca Town, at 51 points, is six clear of second place and a whopping 15(!) points clear of fourth place. Meanwhile, Pons Aelius has leapfrogged DC for second and is nine points ahead of fourth, while the Oilers are eight points up. With this clique solidifying at the top, it looks like the battle in the league will be for fourth place and the final playoff spot. Currently, Londinium and Eboracum are tied for fourth with 36 points, but Londinium has won all three matchups so far. If they are tied at the end of the season, head-to-head record will be the principal tiebreaker. Also in the hunt are Labrador, who's bounced back from their poor run of form, Portus Abonae, who are starting to hit their stride after struggling for long periods of time, and Sept-Iles, who just need some consistency.

Who's hot: Three and a half teams

-Portus Abonae, who has won three in a row, and seven of their last ten, including taking down the Oilers, Royals, and Whalers, while losing in overtime to Isca Town. It's helped them to within five points of playoff position.

-Pons Aelius has won three of their last four, and four of their last six, with both their losses coming in shootout fashion, including a shootout against Labrador that went down to the final shot before the Caribou converted and Dave Francis shut the door on Nate Fuller. They're now in second place and are the only team to have allowed fewer than 20 goals.

-The Mancunium Raiders, who have suddenly won three in a row and five of their last six, including taking down the Captains, Steelers, and Royals. Their run of good form hasn't moved the needle on the standings much, as they are still tied for 10th, but they are well clear of last place at this point. This is what ownership envisioned when they opened up the checkbook this offseason. Err, the winning streak, not finding themselves in 10th place.

-Labrador is on a semi-hot streak, having won three of their last four (after losing six in a row). Their wins over Newfield and Pons Aelius lifted them to 33 points, just three back of Londinium and Eboracum. They will play Londinium next, looking to take advantage of the Royals' cold stretch and put themselves in a better position going into the All-Star break.

Who's not: Three teams

-The Londinium Royals, who have lost their last three games and six of their last eight. The losses to bottom-feeding Mancunium and Aquae Sulis have especially stung. The cold streak has wasted their not inconsiderable lead for the final playoff spot and tied them with Eboracum. They've been outscored 21-14 in their last eight, bringing their already thin goal differential down to almost zero. Is this reversion to the mean or just a run of bad luck? Whichever it turns out to be will determine how their season goes.

-The Eboracum Sharpshooters have lost three of their last four and four of their last six. The effect of that has been their inability to take over the final playoff position from Londinium. They haven't been outplayed, necessarily, with their four losses coming by one goal or by shootout, and they haven't been giving up points against bad teams either. They've lost to Pons Aelius, Londinium, Isca Town, and DC, the current top four teams. But their struggles against better opponents have really been holding them back. They're one goal behind DC for the best offense in the league, but their defense is league-worst. Some small improvements on D could go a long way.

-The Newfield Rangers have lost six in a row, seriously cramping their style. If they lose their next game, and Aquae Sulis and Mancunium both win, they would be in eleventh place. It's the wrong direction to be going in for head coach Teddy Clegg: "Losing streaks are tough. It kills your momentum and saps your ability to come back. You start hanging your head when you go behind early. But I believe in this team, and I believe we'll bounce back." The Rangers will get Sept-Iles next, a tough game where both sides will be looking to pick up points, the Rangers to stop their losing streak, and the Whalers to make themselves competitive for the playoffs.

Surprise of the update: Two surprises, actually

First, in game 29, Sept-Iles absolutely wiping the floor with DC. We know Sept-Iles has been improving this season, but to crush the second-place team in the league by four goals while shutting them out is truly an achievement. Gaston Fortin, who had a goal and two assists, was quoted as saying, "This is our true potential. When we play as a team, we can do anything. Allez les Balinieres!" Conversely, Oilers head coach Sherm Willis downplayed the loss. "We had a bad game. They're a good team, and it shows that in this league, you can't ever take a day off or not play your best, or you're gonna get your butts whupped. But this isn't us. We had a bad game."

Second, Isca Town losing for just the fifth time this season. Well, it's not so much the loss as who it was to. Few expected bottom-feeding Mancunium to knock off the top-ranked team, but they have defeated three playoff-position teams in their last six games. It was a scrappy, well-played game on both sides, but Quinn Baird beat Justin Smith in the third period to give the Raiders the win.

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